BEEP BEEP! Checkmate!

How Hezbollah got humiliated by Israel

I’m a firm believer in the statement “war exposes everyone”. If you haven’t been working on your logistics, procurement, production, economics, promoting competence etc etc… It’s all going to be exposed. War is the ultimate competition sort of like an MMA fight. Everything you haven’t worked on will rear it’s ugly head at you.

Plan A

After Hama’s October 7th attack on Israel, Hezbollah took the opportunity to re-ignite their long feud against “Zionists”. They launched rockets and artillery at Israel and took some pot shots at the Israel-Lebanon border region. In my analysis of the situation, Hezbollah’s plan was to get Israel to fight a two front war by baiting them into doing a ground invasion of Lebanon. Why would they want this? Well, because of 2006. In 2006, Israel did a ground invasion of Lebanon and waged a war against Hezbollah. In that war Hezbollah thought they held their own (by their standards). They used guerilla tactics and killed over 120 IDF soldiers and wounded over 1200. They figured, if we did that back then we can do way better now because we have more experience and better equipment.

A war like this would put the IDF in a very bad position. Fighting Hamas is a way easier task than fighting Hezbollah.