Biden's Fence Sitting Administration
are you out or you're in Jack?
A lot of people in the foreign policy space favor how Democrats in the US are doing foreign policy. They support Ukraine, they oppose China, they oppose Iran (insert whatever else). As opposed to the current Republican rhetoric which suggests a more isolationist approach. The huge rift between the two sides causes the Biden admin to not get enough good criticism for how they’re handling things.
The truth is, when it comes to foreign policy the Biden presidency has been plagued with fence straddling.
Ukraine
Ukraine’s experience with the Biden admin has been bi-polar. On one side the US is giving weapons, but on the other side they’re not giving enough for them to actually win. The weapon systems also come with range restrictions. Ukraine is not allowed to strike past certain distances into Russia with US weapons. This is because Biden doesn’t want to make a hard decision. They want Ukraine to win but don’t know what to do if they do win. What if the Putin regime falls and Russia descends into chaos? What if Russia uses a nuclear weapon?
At this point the US is just hoping that Russia quits and negotiates. It’s a plan based on hope, not on guaranteeing a win. Ukraine can’t afford to lose too much of their population in this war if it’s going to be worth it. Russia has a higher total population so they love engaging Ukraine in attritional style combat. They move at a slow pace and are more than happy to trade 10 of their lives to kill 4 Ukrainians. It’s why Ukraine decided to push into the Russian mainland. If they continue is attritional style fighting, at some point the math is not going to be in their favor. In February 2022, the Biden admin could of just watched Ukraine fall and did nothing but they decided to help. You can’t just abandon people halfway into a war after you said you would help them. But they’re also afraid of what the end might look like so the Ukrainians are in some strange limbo.
Haiti
Due to some past US foreign policy failures, warlords were allowed to take over huge swaths of land in Haiti. The Biden administration assessed after years of neglect the situation has reached critical mass and US had to do something. US Secretary of state Anthony Blinken and CARICOM (Caribbean Community) sat together in a room and hand picked the transitionary government of Haiti. They’re currently in charge until it’s safe enough to hold elections.
Instead of sending a few US Special Operations battalions to Haiti (1hr flight from Miami) to eliminate the gangs. The Biden administration decided it was best to go to UN and get Kenya to send 1000 “police officers”. The US provided the Kenyans and the Haitian police with MRAPS (armored vehicle). This sounds ok right? Well yes, on the surface, it’s actually another instance of fence sitting from the US. In some instances the Haitian police are better equipped than the Kenyans. Majority of the Kenyans only have iron sights on their riffles. Their armored vehicles don’t have turrets so they can’t return fire unless they dismount. They sent 1000 Kenyans (other countries have “officers” there too but the numbers are so low its not even worth mentioning) to fight against thousands of gang members and their warlords. More importantly with no air support.
The US is afraid to send troops with air assets because they might look racist, like they’re “invading Haiti”. So instead, what you get is a half measure that will take years instead of the most effective measure that would take months.
Houthis
The Houthis have been a torn at the side of global shipping for almost a year now. They indiscriminately fire missiles and drones at commercial shipping vessels. The US is known to be the guarantor of global shipping via the Freedom of Navigation act. The Biden admin thought they should do something about this. They stationed an aircraft carrier and some destroyers in that area. The vessels are not there to eradicate the Houthis instead they’re doing management, “managing the situation as best as they can”. Well… every now and then managing stops working and the Houthis hit a commercial vessel.
Same fence sitting issue here with the Biden admin. They don’t want to start an actual war against the Houthis because of….. Maybe Afghanistan PTSD. Instead they just go for the half measure, like every other foreign policy decision.
The Counter Argument
The counter argument to my criticism here would be the US is in a good place. Russia is weakened, China’s economy is in shambles, Israel will handle Iran and it’s proxies, Haiti is a small country so it doesn’t matter.
These things are true, but I don’t think it’s what the Biden admin was thinking. Why would you give these people hope but not actually push them across the finish line? The most likely answer is just fear. All of these half measures come from a fear of making big decisions, they’re scared to make a mistake. What do you do when you fear? You pick what on the surface seems like the safest route.
Ain't no such thing as half way crooks
Great write up, as always. It surprises me that the US seems to lack a coherent foreign policy right now.
Although I understand why they wouldn’t want to push especially hard in Ukraine, I suppose a cynical view is that the current administration believes any hard commitment would result in a potential loss of power here at home, so we get these half measures.
It would be nice to wrap up some of these conflicts, even if it meant putting our backs into it a little bit.