I'M BACK! Ukraine Invades Russia!
Let's talk about the Kursk offensive
It’s been two months guys and I’m back to writing these articles for you. The first topic I’ll cover (because I get DMs about it) is the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, Russia. It feels crazy to say even now. I don’t think many of us have fully digested the situation. In 2020 we would think this would be an impossible feat for a poor corrupt country like Ukraine. They’ve occupied Russian territory for more than a month now! Crazy!
Why Did Ukraine Do This?
A lot of people were wondering why Ukraine invaded and a lot of people got a bunch of wrong answers. This is typical of the current information environment we live in. If you don’t properly curate who it is you’re getting information from the likely hood that you’ve left reality and now live in an alternate universe of their making is pretty high.
There are multiple reasons why Ukraine had to make this move. If you’ve been following my Substack for a while you already know one of the reasons pretty well. Russian soldiers outnumber the Ukrainians but they’re not very good at maneuver warfare. They lack the mobility, communication, command structure and training to properly execute it.
Wikipedia:
Maneuver warfare, or manoeuvre warfare, is a military strategy which emphasizes movement, initiative and surprise to achieve a position of advantage. Maneuver seeks to inflict losses indirectly by envelopment, encirclement and disruption, while minimizing the need to engage in frontal combat. In contrast to attrition warfare where strength tends to be applied against strength, maneuver warfare attempts to apply strength against weakness in order to accomplish the mission.
Where Russia does have an advantage is engaging in a slow war of attrition. So they shaped the battlefield to their advantage, they continuously lay tons of landmines along the frontline and they’ve dug extensive trenches and ditches. These positions are further enforced by artillery, attack helicopters, fighter jets equipped with glide bombs and more. How the Russian’s set up the battlefield forces Ukraine to engage in a slow grinding war. This style of fighting does not favor Ukraine because they don’t have the troop numbers for it. Ukraine had two choices, continue this war and ultimately lose in a few years or, they could get over their fear of getting nuked and flip the table.
Another reason is stacking more odds in your favor if it comes to a negotiation. The more territory you control the more chips are at your table and you cash in those chips to get more favorable terms. Another very important thing to consider is that it’s election season in the United States. According to the polling, it looks like it’s going to be a close race. Unlike Biden/Kamala Harris, Donald Trump does not have a clear public stance on Ukraine. What people can gather from talks here and there is that he might want to stop supplying Ukraine. Personally I don’t think this is going to really happen (at least not in a permanent fashion), but when it comes to warfare you try your best not to leave anything to chance. Now if you lose your supplies and a negotiation is forced you lose less of what you were fighting for.
Note: there is a potential third unknown reason that could be a at play.
Why Were They Successful?
They were successful due to what I described above, they’re playing to their strengths and Russia’s weakness.
The terrain was great, there were no deep network of landmines and trenches like east and southeast Ukraine.
Not many Russian troops were guarding the border in that area.
The Russian military is a very top heavy slow moving organization that can’t think and execute with speed. This is why they favored fighting in trenches behind minefields. I knew the Ukrainians were going to be successful from day one because of that very reason. Once the Ukrainians broke through there was no way the Russian Defense Ministry could stop the bleeding in time. The Russian military seems to be able to play chess but struggle a lot with speed chess (maneuver warfare).
Ukraine did a very good job of keeping this a secret. The opsec of this offensive was vacuum sealed, no one knew this was coming.
The Dilemma
This Maneuver by the Ukrainians put’s the Russians in a dilemma. Ukraine’s most experienced troops are leading this offensive. Throwing poorly trained conscripts at this problem won’t fix it. They can either:
Ignore this, take advantage of the lack of troops inside Ukraine and continue to push.
Move their experienced troops from Ukraine to put a lid on the invasion.
If they go with 1 Ukraine gets to run free in their mainland. This is a problem because Ukraine is the underdog and their population is already accustomed to being invaded. As the bigger country if Ukrainian troops are running around uncontested in your country this presents a political issue. The Russian people might not be happy with this level of incompetence, it’s very embarrassing. Like I stated above, the Russian military is a very slow moving one, how much land can they take before winter? Ukraine was willing to gamble on that.
If they go with 2 it favors Ukraine because the Russian’s suck at maneuver. Ukraine gets to fight this war how they wanted to fight it from day one. Probe, find weak points, maneuver around strong points, flank, encircle etc.
Let’s see if the Russian Ministry of Defense can figure this out, see you next time.