Last time we did an update was Russia retreating from the long 40 mile Kiev pincer that it claimed was a feint. The war just entered a new phase so It’s time for an update.
Ukrainian Counter Offensive
After Russia retreated from Kiev they changed their game plan to what they do best, artillery. They moved west from the Donbas region and North from Crimea and were making gains slowly but surely.
Yes, I only trust the French MoD maps, their intel is pretty solid. Ukraine was fighting back pretty well but were outmatched by the new Russian tactic of destroying everything. Artillery until they can assault, if they can’t assault ARTILERY AGAIN. Russia made gains and held on to em. The whole summer was pretty much that.
There was news that Ukraine was preparing for a counter offensive in the south by Kherson. Russia allegedly moved their best units to the south to counter it. The coming counter offensive in the south was highly telegraphed, it was no secret. Ukrainians started fighting in the south but making no gains, Russian media celebrated the “failing offensive”.
Then, boom… A huge Ukrainian offensive starts in the north by Kharkiv catching Russia off guard, the offensive in the south was a feint.
Russian troops were surprised and ran off leaving loads of equipment behind. Ukraine took more equipment from fleeing Russian troops than they got from the west. Russian Air force is still missing in action to this day.
It’s about to get worst for Russia… Like any good feint, you turn it into a real attack. Ukraine turns up the pressure in the south by Kherson and starts making gains. Russia being caught in a loop had to do something fast. Putin announces a draft for the war and gives command to General Sergei Surovikin who used to be in charge of Russian forces in Syria, allegedly nicknamed “General Armageddon”.
Change In Mentality - Asymmetric Warfare
Oct 8, 22 - Ukraine allegedly drove a truck bomb on to the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Russia to Crimea and exploded it damaging the bridge and lit on fire a conveniently placed train that was carrying fuel.
Asymmetric warfare is unconventional strategies and tactics adopted by a force. Ukraine did just that here, they could not reach that bridge with their artillery so they found another creative way. If Ukraine continues to think like this Russia has a lot of trouble on their hands, way more than it does now.
Nuclear Threats
There are more nuclear threats from Putin and even US President Joe Biden is talking about “Armageddon”. But the Pentagon basically said what Biden’s statements were unfounded. Pentagon spokesperson also said they have “not seen anything that would give us pause to reconsider our own strategic nuclear posture”. So just a lot of talking but weapons and intel are not actually moving around. Like I said before, nuclear weapons are better used as political tools than literally.
Conclusion
Russia got maneuvered on at an operational level and didn’t have the flexibility to counter it, the ball is now in their court. They still have the numbers to win and the odds are still in their favor, on paper… But, wars aren’t fought on paper.
Map October 14, 2022:
I’ve seen various stories/reports the UKR forces have very effective counters to Russian helicopters from portable rockets.
Fighter jets/bombers seem like much harder targets but seem to be underutilized. Does Ukraine have highly effective anti-aircraft systems or does Russia just not have a very strong Air Force? Or is there a different reason for this?
I really wonder— if you Americans know how pathetic you all look, to the outside world. You fight amongst yourselves.. Democrats V Republicans, black vs. white, religion against religion, actually you all fight over every single topic. From an outside perspective, you're like the bullies in the sand pit.. You think you should be number one, with every other country below you but never equal to you right? What're your saying?.. God bless America and no one else Right? You create the weapons, the war and interfere in every other country on the planet. “You're the eternal agitators”.. And not since Trump but since “ALWAYS”. It's clear anyway that no president is in charge. There is something much more sinister going on behind the scenes. All that money going to defence budgets and it should be providing every damn citizen— with Free healthcare, number one priority today.. Food in your stomach, number two.. No more of this bull shit, war mongering, money drainers. You want all your kids 18+ sent overseas to these wars? Dem or Rep— The only time your sons and daughters should be getting ready for war, is if you need to fight an invasion on your own soil.. And that could definitely happen 99% of the world's problems are caused by the American oligarchy/elite class. You all should be embarrassed to call yourself American, the world is really starting to hate you all. And for you Democrats.. the way you carry on like little children, sore little losers of the election.. And you guys fucking sucked— when you held all the seats and all the power.. Fucking disgusting all of you.
Get it together or there will be suffering on this planet like never before and you will be to blame..
Fuck make America great again, how about make the world great again— 2000 years of peace, is what you all should be fighting for.. Abolish the insurance companies.. Stop letting corporations and billionaires run the show..
Stand up for yourself for fuck sake.
Much love to the peacekeepers..
From a New Zealand Grandmother
(with free healthcare and a 4% unemployment rate) You could have that too, if you work together.. Dumb ass’s.