Ukraine War Update - 10/14/22
Haven't given you guys an update for a while so here we go.
Last time we did an update was Russia retreating from the long 40 mile Kiev pincer that it claimed was a feint. The war just entered a new phase so It’s time for an update.
Ukrainian Counter Offensive
After Russia retreated from Kiev they changed their game plan to what they do best, artillery. They moved west from the Donbas region and North from Crimea and were making gains slowly but surely.
Yes, I only trust the French MoD maps, their intel is pretty solid. Ukraine was fighting back pretty well but were outmatched by the new Russian tactic of destroying everything. Artillery until they can assault, if they can’t assault ARTILERY AGAIN. Russia made gains and held on to em. The whole summer was pretty much that.
There was news that Ukraine was preparing for a counter offensive in the south by Kherson. Russia allegedly moved their best units to the south to counter it. The coming counter offensive in the south was highly telegraphed, it was no secret. Ukrainians started fighting in the south but making no gains, Russian media celebrated the “failing offensive”.
Then, boom… A huge Ukrainian offensive starts in the north by Kharkiv catching Russia off guard, the offensive in the south was a feint.
Russian troops were surprised and ran off leaving loads of equipment behind. Ukraine took more equipment from fleeing Russian troops than they got from the west. Russian Air force is still missing in action to this day.
It’s about to get worst for Russia… Like any good feint, you turn it into a real attack. Ukraine turns up the pressure in the south by Kherson and starts making gains. Russia being caught in a loop had to do something fast. Putin announces a draft for the war and gives command to General Sergei Surovikin who used to be in charge of Russian forces in Syria, allegedly nicknamed “General Armageddon”.
Change In Mentality - Asymmetric Warfare
Oct 8, 22 - Ukraine allegedly drove a truck bomb on to the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Russia to Crimea and exploded it damaging the bridge and lit on fire a conveniently placed train that was carrying fuel.
Asymmetric warfare is unconventional strategies and tactics adopted by a force. Ukraine did just that here, they could not reach that bridge with their artillery so they found another creative way. If Ukraine continues to think like this Russia has a lot of trouble on their hands, way more than it does now.
Nuclear Threats
There are more nuclear threats from Putin and even US President Joe Biden is talking about “Armageddon”. But the Pentagon basically said what Biden’s statements were unfounded. Pentagon spokesperson also said they have “not seen anything that would give us pause to reconsider our own strategic nuclear posture”. So just a lot of talking but weapons and intel are not actually moving around. Like I said before, nuclear weapons are better used as political tools than literally.
Conclusion
Russia got maneuvered on at an operational level and didn’t have the flexibility to counter it, the ball is now in their court. They still have the numbers to win and the odds are still in their favor, on paper… But, wars aren’t fought on paper.
Map October 14, 2022:
I’ve seen various stories/reports the UKR forces have very effective counters to Russian helicopters from portable rockets.
Fighter jets/bombers seem like much harder targets but seem to be underutilized. Does Ukraine have highly effective anti-aircraft systems or does Russia just not have a very strong Air Force? Or is there a different reason for this?