Ukraine War update 12/18/2022 - Winter warfare, Bakhmut & Trenches

Last update for the year!

Last time we had an update we talked about the Ukrainian counter offensives and the Crimean bridge bombing. Now Russia is mobilizing it’s citizens and getting ready for a new assault. Also, winter is upon us, let’s get into it!

Blackout!

Since our last update Russia has been specifically targeting the Ukrainian power grid in hopes to make their citizens want to give up. Attacking power infrastructure is good because replacement parts usually take a long time to produce. This is advantageous for Russia because the #1 issue with attacking critical infrastructure is that It gets repaired pretty fast and you have to keep bombing it continuously.

While this is a good tactic I think it’s a bit too late. These kind of things should of been done in the opening days of the war not 7 months into it. Because of their battlefield wins, the Ukrainian civilians already have the confidence that they can win. They’re not going to reconsider that just because they don’t have power. There is no historical evidence of civilians giving up because of bombings, as a matter of fact it can bring them even closer if they have a “Churchill”.

Winter Warfare

Winter slows down everything, untracked vehicles move a lot slower. The snow decreases your visibility and you have to repaint your vehicles. Gear also freezes and break easier. Troops need winter gear and shelter, you can’t just stay outside for weeks like you can during warmer weather. Luckily for Russia and Ukraine the Kalashnikov platform is a pretty durable one and performs in all conditions. So on the riffle front they’ll probably be fine.

Fighting a war in the winter requires a lot more fuel than the summer time because you have to keep people warm. Your supply chain becomes that much more important. All in all, fighting in the winter is more difficult and requires a lot more leadership and organization than the summer time. In other words, if you can’t perform in the summer the chances that you’ll gain some “second wind” in the winter is very low. Contrary to popular belief about Russia. Also, they’re fighting their neighbor Ukraine not India. Ukrainians also understand “their” cold, they’re fighting at home.

I’m estimating that Russia let’s the deep winter pass and really starts back up in late march with their newly mobilized force (if they’re smart).

Bakhmut and Trenches

Current map as of 14 December

Russia is still very interested in Bakhmut. Both sides are taking tons of casualties and is one of the most active battlefields in the war. Both sides are committed and are participating in attrition warfare. Ukrainians build trenches as forward positions and retreat from them when they get bombed and try to reclaim the lost ground. We’re back to the old world wars with this one. Trench warfare I really hate but hey… I’m not the one fighting. Pictures from Bakhmut:

I’m not a fan of trench warfare but If the objective is to keep the endless enemy offensive at a standstill while you take ground in other places I guess maybe it’s worth it.

Casualties Update

US General Mark Miley stated that both Russia and Ukraine have suffered 100K casualties since the start of the war. Hard to trust numbers from anyone, but Miley’s seem like the most reasonable one at the moment because Russian defense minister Shoigu thinks Ukraine lost 61k and 49K wounded. Pretty close, so we can guess the numbers are around there.

As always, thanks for reading.